The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula — f* = (b·p − q) / b — that calculates the exact fraction of your bankroll to wager for maximum long-run growth. Professional sports bettors use Half Kelly (betting half the recommended amount) to reduce variance. Our calculator handles all of this automatically — input your bankroll, the decimal odds, and your estimated win probability.

For positive American odds (e.g. +150): decimal = (150÷100) + 1 = 2.50. For negative odds (e.g. −200): decimal = (100÷200) + 1 = 1.50. Most crypto sportsbooks like Stake.com and BC.Game use decimal odds by default. Use the converter above to switch between any format instantly.

Implied probability is the win percentage embedded in the bookmaker’s odds: prob = (1 ÷ decimal odds) × 100. Odds of 2.00 imply 50% probability. If your estimated win probability is higher than the implied probability, you have a positive expected value (EV) bet — the mathematical foundation of profitable value betting on crypto sportsbooks.

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